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When are the 'birds going to start appreciating???

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  • #1

    When are the 'birds going to start appreciating???

    Do any of you have an estimated time frame of when the Thunderbirds will begin appreciating in value? 5 years from creation? 10 years? I have tracked on a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet my car's value from Kelly Blue Book ever since I bought the car. I have seen the retail value drop from $28,500.00 down to $25,100.00 (which is what it is at today for my car - 50K miles, 2004). I'm getting stinkin' depressed! Here I have a $31K+ car loan for this car (because $5K was from my trade in - UGH!) I mean I know cars depreciate but I would think these would retain their value, not keep dropping in value by the thousands. Although, I am putting a good 1K miles on it per month which is average....

    Any thoughts????
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  • #2
    Re: When are the 'birds going to start appreciating???

    Not for a long, long time ... It will be a used car for at least 10 more years and, if you put any credence in what some of the popular auto press has predicted, they will never be collectibles as the Early Birds are and have been for years.

    Just my 2 cents ...
    sigpicSoaring with My Raven Under Carolina Blue Skies ...

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    • #3
      Re: When are the 'birds going to start appreciating???

      Not for a long, long time (though my Cashmere seems to be holding it's own). Appreciate your Bird for what it is...a very unique vehicle, loved and appreciated by many, and awed by some. Enjoy your ride. It won't last forever!
      sigpic
      Goldilocks~Venomous~Moondoggie
      Drive like you mean it!!
      ~Elle~

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      • #4
        Re: When are the 'birds going to start appreciating???

        My guess would be at least 25 years down the road. Hope you didn't buy the car for appreciating value but rather for the joy of ownership!


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        • #5
          Re: When are the 'birds going to start appreciating???

          I tend to agree with Joe. On eBay there are cars that pop up virtually weekly that obviously the original purchaser felt they could make a killing on in 5 years. These are ultra low or no mile cars and their value is not that much greater than ones that are in good shape that have been enjoyed.

          The thing that will impact the 02-05 Thunderbird or any other post 80s cars from being huge collectors in the years to come is the ability to keep them in running condition. Due to the overall limited production of the Thunderbird there will be electronic components that will fail and they simply will not be available after market and they will have long since been dropped from dealership inventories.

          Some exceptions will be the GN and GNX, selected Corvettes, some specific Mustangs, and maybe limited others.
          Lonestar
          It was a smile in every mile
          Gotta love that American Ride

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          • #6
            Re: When are the 'birds going to start appreciating???

            This car cost to much to begin with even used to ever be worth more then you paid for it in most cases.(buy it because you like it) There will be a few in years to come (many years and very low miles) that will get what they paid for it or more. But, not when you are putting 1k miles a month on it. But, I will say this. I could be wrong but I don't think so.

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            • #7
              Re: When are the 'birds going to start appreciating???

              I would say that there are so many ultra low mileage examples out there, that the average or even less than average mileage birds won't significantly "appreciate" forever. I think their value will bottom out, stay the same for a long time and then slowly start creeping up.

              I think an argument can be made that these cars are "appreciating" to some degree now because they haven't "depreciated" as rapidly as other Ford/Lincoln/Mercure vehicles of the same age. Look up what a 2004 Ford Crown Victoria, Lincoln Town Car or Mercury Marquis are worth compared to their MSRP and I bet you'll find a much bigger percentage loss in value than you have experienced on your Thunderbird.
              21 years, 174K miles, 48 States X 2 & DC, 9 Canadian provinces, 8 European countries, 3 Caribbean Islands, 3 Hawaiian Islands, 100+ National Park locations, 150+ T-bird events, 190+ retrobird diecasts/models, 13 TOTM pics & some very special friends...THANKS TBN !

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              • #8
                Re: When are the 'birds going to start appreciating???

                I guess see the other side of the coin. Our cars are depreciating at a much slower rate and will probably bottom out earlier than other cars the same age. An '02 Lincoln LS model my Bird is based on, with a similar mileage quote is only worth $11,500 Kelly Blue Book Retail Value Quote.

                After 2 years of fun with it and looking at recent listings, I believe I could sell it for my purchase price without a problem, not that I want to. It's just too damn much fun and draws such attention and positive comments.

                I haven't been able to say that about many other past vehicle purchases (that weren't already collectibles on their way up.) I agree with others who say enjoy it for what it is (and the attention it draws).

                James
                sigpic

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                • #9
                  Re: When are the 'birds going to start appreciating???

                  Originally posted by NEW_BYRD View Post
                  Do any of you have an estimated time frame of when the Thunderbirds will begin appreciating in value?


                  I learned the hard way too. I bought a '76 Eldorado Convertible, my parents bought two. Last of the big ones, 502 engine...a real collectors item. Brand new they sold for $11,049. One just sold on ebay...40,000 mile garage queen.....that's 1250 miles per YEAR....for $11,500. An appreciation of $451 over 32 years.

                  Drive 2188 per year, 70,000 miles....they're selling for under $5000.

                  Not gonna happen.

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                  • #10
                    Re: When are the 'birds going to start appreciating???

                    Well thanks for everyone's replies. Not the kind of responses I was expecting! I have been told over and over and people agree with me that this car is going to be a collector's item and is going to be worth some money some day. Now after reading all of the responses I'm not so sure. Of course I didn't buy the car for an investment by any means, I bought it because I was in love with it. BUT people say that it is a car that will hold its value and IS a good investment so I'm all confused. I just don't want to make the mistake my Dad made back in 1980. He had a '69 Mach 1 mustang, sold it for $2500....now it is worth $25K.......what's worse is that the guy he sold it to wrapped it around a telephone poll. I just don't want to end up getting rid of the bird and then 20 - 30 years later be kicking myself because it is a "rare" car. Oh well, I guess no one really can predict what is going to happen. Anything can happen.

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                    • #11
                      Re: When are the 'birds going to start appreciating???

                      I started appreciating mine the day I took delivery, over 6 years ago. I am getting my money's worth out of it every day. ~80,000 smiles
                      ~Jimmy
                      Native Texan
                      sigpic

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                      • #12
                        Re: When are the 'birds going to start appreciating???

                        Put your money in wall street and I bet you see a bigger return then you will for any (all most) any car built today over 20-30 year later. Just a little bit each month around $50 to $100. and if you are still alive you will thank me. lol thats if I'm still alive. god I'll be 63 to 73 years old. :(

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                        • #13
                          Re: When are the 'birds going to start appreciating???

                          thats not to old is it?????

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                          • #14
                            Re: When are the 'birds going to start appreciating???

                            Originally posted by NEW_BYRD View Post
                            . I have seen the retail value drop from $28,500.00 down to $25,100.00 (which is what it is at today for my car - 50K miles, 2004). I'm getting stinkin' depressed! Here I have a $31K+ car loan for this car (because $5K was from my trade in - UGH!) I mean I know cars depreciate but I would think these would retain their value, not keep dropping in value by the thousands. Although, I am putting a good 1K miles on it per month which is average....
                            Any thoughts????
                            First of all your 12 K per year may be average on most cars but on these Birds that is probably double what most folks do. See survey
                            http://www.thunderbirdnest.com/forum...ad.php?t=19986
                            and in 10 years your's will have 120K 15 yrs 180Kthat's not collectable material.

                            To most non car people it's just a used ragtop and soon alot of DADDY's will be buying them as a fun car for their college bound kids to use and abuse dropping their value even more.

                            Drive it enjoy it and go upside down again when you trade it! That's the life cycle of automobiles. How do you thing the folks that paid 10K over sticker when they first came out and put them in storage feel knowing their investment is down at least 40%.
                            sigpic

                            “THE EDGE,
                            there is no honest way to explain it
                            because the only people who really know where it is
                            are the ones who have gone over.”

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                            • #15
                              Re: When are the 'birds going to start appreciating???

                              I believe that most cars decrease in value for the first 10 years, then slowly start to rise. The best kept cars will be worth the most. However, nobody has a crystal ball that can forecast the future value of these cars. If they are ever to be worth good money, it won't be for many more years.
                              I say drive it, enjoy it, & keep it in excellent condition. That way you will have your enjoyment regardless if the values increase down the road or not.
                              My $.02 worth.
                              Andy G.
                              2004 Premium Evening Black / Evening Black
                              Black Ink, SST, Original Owner

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